Will Denver snag the 2016 RNC?
The 2016
Republican National Convention is looking for a host city and the list of 8
contenders came out on Thursday: Cleveland, Cincinnati, Columbus, Denver, Dallas,
Kansas City, Las Vegas, and Phoenix.
Now
that the list of contenders is out, the question is: “Do we have a shot?"
The graphic above shows the picks from the 9NEWS political team, representing where we think the RNC is most likely to go.
I'll explain my full ranking of the cities below, but bear in mind that the decision is a soupy mix of picking a place where things will go smoothly and where the best political story can be told.
None of us picked Denver
number one, though we all gave it a chance. (Floyd gave it 4th place.)
All of us have an Ohio
city in our top three.
We gave a little love for
Vegas, though sin city is a tough image to counter.
Floyd and James both like
Dallas, because it's a place where Hispanic voters live and the GOP has a
history of winning there.
That could be one problem
with Denver. Colorado doesn't have recent big Republican wins.
Our biggest selling point
is that we hosted the Democrats in 2008 which went really well for Democrats.
That
could also be our biggest weakness.
“The
argument is the Democrats were there already, we (the GOP) are going to be
compared to them, we want to break new territory,” said 9NEWS political analyst
Floyd Ciruli.
Below
are my full picks. Make your own and send them to me on twitter with the
hashtag #RNC2016.
1-Cincinnati
I really
like Ohio’s chances of getting this thing. Barack Obama beat Mitt Romney by a
smaller margin than Colorado, making it a swingier state with twice the
electoral votes of Colorado. While the GOP really
wants to turn it red, Ohio’s only problem is that it’s not in the West. The RNC
might be better in front a younger, more audience. Why Cincinnati over the
other two? I like the infrastructure they’ve got there and it’s a nice setting
on the river. Plus they make a killer beanless chili that is served on top of
spaghetti. (Get it with cheddar. It’s unreal!)
2-Denver
I give
weight to Floyd’s point about 2008 coming up in the narrative if the GOP comes
here, (what if the GOP nominee doesn't draw enough people to force his
acceptance speech to go to the Bronco’s stadium?) but I also give weight to the
proponent’s point that the 2008 convention was a huge success. And we’ll have
upgrades. The sky train is going to be in place, meaning attendees can do it
all without renting a car if they want to. We don’t have the same clout as Ohio
in the electoral college, but we are a place the GOP would also love to flip in
a post-Obama America. Sure, we legalized pot, but much of the nation’s joking
about that was vented at the Super Bowl. It’ll come up, but shouldn't be a
distraction.
3-Las Vegas
Even fewer
electoral votes in Nevada, but a similar story to Colorado in terms of
demographics. And there’s really no question it can fit 50,000 visitors (more
please!) The “sin city” image is a problem, but perhaps not as big a problem as
some assume. The GOP has a healthy presence in Nevada and nobody literally
believes that everyone in the town is a minion of Satan.
4-Cleveland
See #1.
5-Columbus
See #1.
6-Phoenix
This would
have been higher on my list were it not for some of the huge controversies to
come out of the GOP-controlled state legislature here. The RNC has a long list
of things it wants to talk about. Anti-gay and anti-immigration policies aren’t
on that list. This is fresh now and could fade by 2016, but I doubt the powers
that be want to take that risk. The risk would come with rewards, though. The
town has the demographics the RNC wants to woo, improved airport
transportation, a revitalized downtown, and a strong record of GOP victory.
7-Dallas
Aside from
being another state that’s seen policies unpopular with the demographics the
GOP is targeting, Texas is big, bold, and is its own powerful brand. So
powerful that Democrats could score points with their base by simply saying “Republicans”
and “Texas” in the same breath. (You know, the way Western Democrats get
heckled if they endorse a “New York” idea.) That being said, the state is changing.
Booming Latino populations and the influx of young professionals to major
cities could force the RNC to give Dallas a serious look. I just doubt in the
end that the GOP wants to ask Texas to the prom.
8-Kansas City
The
city can undoubtedly pull off the event, and who wouldn’t love famous barbecue?
But in the end, Missouri (and Kansas, for that matter) is a political snoozer. I’m
betting the RNC wants more buzz.